Mexico is on track to become America’s first-ever $1 trillion trade partner by the end of 2026, according to a recent analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data by Forbes contributor Ken Roberts.
This surge builds on strong momentum over the past two years. In 2024, Mexico became the first country to cross $800 billion in two-way trade with the U.S. By 2025, it achieved another landmark, becoming both the top destination for U.S. exports and the top source of U.S. imports in the same year – something no country had done in nearly two decades.
Data through September shows U.S. trade with Mexico reaching $779.15 billion USD, up 19.3% from the same period last year. At this pace, total trade between the two nations will hit roughly $1.04 trillion by the end of the year, helping push total U.S. global trade past $6 trillion for the first time.
The growth is happening on both sides. U.S. exports to Mexico grew 17.33% through September to $297.57 billion, easily putting 2026 on track to beat the single-country export record of $359.08 billion set with Canada in 2022.
Meanwhile, U.S. imports from Mexico climbed 20.56% to $481.59 billion through September. Mexico is set to become the first country to supply more than $600 billion in goods to the U.S. in a single year, passing China’s 2018 record of $538.51 billion.
Overall, Mexico will account for about 16.9% of total U.S. trade this year. While Canada held higher shares decades ago when the U.S. relied heavily on Canadian oil imports, Mexico’s current trade growth is far outstripping the rest of the world. Trade with Mexico is expanding at double the rate of U.S. trade globally, while U.S. imports from Mexico are growing at more than three times the global average.
While trade deficits often take center stage, the numbers here show a much fuller picture. The U.S. deficit with Mexico stood at $184.02 billion through September, slightly lower than the $190.93 billion deficit with Vietnam. However, exports make up under 7% of U.S. trade with Vietnam, while accounting for nearly 38% of total U.S. trade with Mexico – right in line with the U.S. global average.
Crossing the trillion-dollar mark is more than just a big headline. It shows that Mexico is serving as both a major supplier of goods and a key market for American products, tying the commercial success of both countries closely together.
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