Mexico’s merchandise exports surpassed $80 billion for the first time in July, reaching a record $81.42 billion as demand for computer, electronic equipment and other manufactured goods surged, particularly in the United States.
Exports jumped 43.7% year over year, their strongest growth in more than five years. The biggest driver was non-automotive manufacturing, which increased 64.9% and generated $59.84 billion, representing about 73% of total exports, according to Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).
AI Investment Drives Demand
The increase comes as US companies invest heavily in artificial intelligence infrastructure and data centers, creating greater demand for advanced technology products.
Non-oil exports to the United States rose 49.8% annually in July, accelerating from 35.9% in June. Analysts said Mexico is benefiting as US companies seek alternative suppliers amid tighter trade restrictions on some Asian imports.
Enrique Covarrubias, chief economist at Actinver, said the trend is strengthening production links between Mexico and the United States. Alberto Ramos, Latin America chief economist at Goldman Sachs, also attributed the strong performance of Mexican manufactured exports to the indirect effects of US investment in AI.
Computer and electronic equipment, along with machinery, were among the strongest performers, according to Monex analysts.
Other sectors had mixed results. Oil exports grew 6.8%, down sharply from June’s 42.6% increase, while agricultural exports fell 8.6% for their third consecutive monthly decline. Extractive industry exports, meanwhile, surged 87.1%.
Imports Hit a Record, Too
Mexico’s imports also reached a record in July, rising 45% to $82.27 billion. Intermediate goods accounted for 81.6% of total imports and increased 56.3%, while capital goods rose 9.9%.
The result was a merchandise trade deficit of $848 million, the first since February. The oil balance posted a $3.66 billion deficit, while non-oil trade recorded a $2.81 billion surplus.
Banamex has raised its full-year outlook and now expects Mexico to post a $14.22 billion trade surplus, compared with its previous forecast of a $6.5 billion deficit. It projects exports will grow 22% and imports 20%.
Analysts caution that Mexico’s trade performance will remain closely tied to negotiations with the United States and the annual USMCA review, particularly discussions involving tariffs, rules of origin and regional content requirements.
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