Puerto Vallarta, Mexico – Meteorologists are warning that the Puerto Vallarta region could face an unusually wet and active hurricane season this year due to the expected arrival of a powerful El Niño phenomenon.
The warning was issued by meteorologist Víctor Manuel Cornejo López during the installation of the Municipal Council for Civil Protection and Risk Management, which was formed ahead of the official start of the 2026 hurricane season on May 15. The meeting focused on strengthening coordination and emergency preparedness throughout the region.
According to forecasts from Mexico’s National Meteorological Service, the Pacific hurricane season could produce between 18 and 21 tropical cyclones. These include 9 to 10 tropical storms, 5 to 6 Category 1 or 2 hurricanes, and 4 to 5 major hurricanes classified as Categories 3 through 5.
Misael López Muro, director of Civil Protection and Firefighters, explained that the council includes representatives from all three levels of government and multiple sectors to ensure a coordinated response during emergencies.
Cornejo López stressed that the greatest danger does not necessarily come from the total number of storms in a season, but from the unpredictable paths they can take. He noted that severe disasters have occurred even during years with relatively low cyclone activity.
He explained that Puerto Vallarta and Banderas Bay benefit from some natural protection due to the surrounding mountains. However, a direct landfall could bring serious consequences if the eyewall or strongest bands of a hurricane enter the bay area.
The meteorologist recalled that the last direct hurricane impact in the Banderas Bay region occurred in 1925. At the time, authorities estimated a 100-year return period for a similar event, a timeframe that has now passed. He added that climate change must also be considered when evaluating current risks.
Cornejo López warned that this year’s El Niño event is expected to be exceptionally strong. Nicknamed “Godzilla” by some experts, the phenomenon could become a “Super Niño,” raising sea surface temperatures by 2 to 4 degrees Celsius and significantly altering weather patterns.
Forecast models indicate that rainfall in the Puerto Vallarta region could exceed historical averages beginning in June, intensifying in July. August is expected to bring extreme heat, followed by heavy rains in September. October could present the greatest concern, as El Niño is projected to reach peak intensity during that period, potentially bringing excessive rainfall and increasing the risk of tropical cyclones making landfall.
Above-average rainfall is also expected to continue into November and December, an unusual pattern for the Banderas Bay region. Cornejo López emphasized that these forecasts apply specifically to western Mexico, while other parts of the country may simultaneously face severe drought conditions.
In addition to heavier rainfall, the meteorologist warned that atmospheric temperatures are expected to remain above average for the rest of the year. He described the outlook as concerning, citing the potential for accelerated ice melt and rising sea levels linked to global climate trends.
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